Italy is a game changer - it is on the doorstep of the UK and the lockdown of Northern Italy which includes Milan, after the significant rise in numbers of infected and deaths - that indicates we have to take the Coronavirus seriously.
The UK has more than 200 infections and two deaths. Italy now has thousands infected with hundreds of deaths. This situation has developed in the last few days.
Carry on and allow numbers to continue to rise with the possibility of as many as 100,000 deaths is not an option. The time to balance economic and social needs has passed.
Comparisons to other countries
If we do not take decisive action like Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia, then we may regret this. If we look at their responses - self isolation regardless of whether showing symptoms after travel and travel bans has slowed their dramatic rise in infections. It will be a long and drawn out period of infected numbers multiplying if the UK does not do more.
London and other major cities in particular are at risk because of the population density, number of high rise office buildings and apartments.
Action needed
Predictions
While estimates of 80% of the workforce being off from the virus and 100,000 deaths are worse case projections, these are estimates based on assumptions and what is hoped is accurate number crunching. It is clear we cannot be gambling on the UK not being severely impacted and we need to all take responsibility to protect ourselves, the country and the world.
This is the single greatest challenge faced by our generation. It is different to SARS and other viruses because of increased travel and this virus seems far more dangerous. Certainly things will be worse before they are better. We need to buckle up.
It is natural to go through periods of denial, to worry about overeeacting or any number of other concerns. However, we are better off prepared for the worst and manging on that basis by being overly cautious and heavy handed than to let a runaway train doom us to certain calamity.
Coronavirus 2020
Hopefully this is more of a little sneeze rather than a full blown illness which progresses into a disease. We are at a critical juncture and if I didn't feel so passionately that the current attitudes and thinking has been so flawed, then I would not bother.
We need to all take our health seriously. Sleep and eating sensibly is super important now. Smoking also seems to weaken lungs and make people more susceptible. Avoid passive smoking and quit smoking if you are a smoker. Children have better immunities - let's drink less alcohol, avoid stress, take less drugs and stop smoking. Now is our wake up call. If in the meantime, we can be healthier, that could be a good thing.
I have read the spectrum of media reports and continue to monitor it all closely. There is alot of information out there, but we all need to be keeping ourselves informed, avoiding areas which might be contaminated and ensuring a robust health system. Be safe & well.
You may also be interested in
The UK has more than 200 infections and two deaths. Italy now has thousands infected with hundreds of deaths. This situation has developed in the last few days.
Carry on and allow numbers to continue to rise with the possibility of as many as 100,000 deaths is not an option. The time to balance economic and social needs has passed.
Comparisons to other countries
If we do not take decisive action like Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia, then we may regret this. If we look at their responses - self isolation regardless of whether showing symptoms after travel and travel bans has slowed their dramatic rise in infections. It will be a long and drawn out period of infected numbers multiplying if the UK does not do more.
London and other major cities in particular are at risk because of the population density, number of high rise office buildings and apartments.
Action needed
- Self isolation is key as there is no way of knowing if those not showing symptoms may be walking time bombs. It is apparent that panic has set in with supermarkets being emptied. The government's and WHO's response is inadequate. The sudden rise in numbers makes this seem more like we are going to be more like Wuhan with a health system unable to cope.
- The travel dimension has been a huge issue. Anyone who has been on a cruise or travelled recently, or in contact with them is at risk. This then multiplies. People need to stop travelling overseas.
- Continue to improve existing processes and guidance within the healthcare system. I understand already that the system is overwhelmed. I know of someone who was advised to go back to work untested though she had direct contact with an infected person. She had to call back several times before someone finally agreed she should be tested. The second casualty, the man who died in hospital was reportedly not in isolation for 6 hours with family visiting him. This seems unacceptable. I appreciate staff are doing the best that they can, but more robust processes, guidance and measures is needed.
- Misinformation and assumptions are problems. There is a false sense of security with the misconception that the risk is mostly to the elderly when we have still seen fatalities in all age groups except for children under 9 years old. In Italy it is a 4% death rate which is creeping up above the expected 2%. The average age of those who have died are in their 80s with the majority having underlying conditions, but what are those minority circumstances? What is also unclear is the youngest age? For example, one newsreport indicated a man in his 30s in Italy was critically ill. Furthermore, what other differences might be developing in Italy and Iran versus the Wuhan data? There is no way of knowing how this virus is evolving and to allow numbers to grow is negligent.
- Responsible businesses are critical. Too many people are walking around with maybe a normal flu or the corona virus. Businesses need to insist and make alternative arrangements with any signs of illness. We must learn to make do at less than full capacity for all but essential services. We are risking exacerbating the situation and it could result in even greater losses if we do not act more preemptively, though we may even be too late now. What has become obvious is that business continuity practices and processes are woefully outdated or not even in existence.
- Governments must act. Ministers continue to sit on their hands, much like the last three years of Brexit, afraid of the consequences. The risks now have become too great. Like the falling stock market, you take the loss now rather than the bigger loss later. If we fail to manage our risks properly, we will have more problems later. Further, have we factored in the reputational damage if the UK has to lock down like Northern Italy, the implications in the long term to the tourist and business sectors, and also the legacy of the government which will be forever remembered as putting the ecomony over the 100,000 deaths.
While estimates of 80% of the workforce being off from the virus and 100,000 deaths are worse case projections, these are estimates based on assumptions and what is hoped is accurate number crunching. It is clear we cannot be gambling on the UK not being severely impacted and we need to all take responsibility to protect ourselves, the country and the world.
This is the single greatest challenge faced by our generation. It is different to SARS and other viruses because of increased travel and this virus seems far more dangerous. Certainly things will be worse before they are better. We need to buckle up.
It is natural to go through periods of denial, to worry about overeeacting or any number of other concerns. However, we are better off prepared for the worst and manging on that basis by being overly cautious and heavy handed than to let a runaway train doom us to certain calamity.
Coronavirus 2020
Hopefully this is more of a little sneeze rather than a full blown illness which progresses into a disease. We are at a critical juncture and if I didn't feel so passionately that the current attitudes and thinking has been so flawed, then I would not bother.
We need to all take our health seriously. Sleep and eating sensibly is super important now. Smoking also seems to weaken lungs and make people more susceptible. Avoid passive smoking and quit smoking if you are a smoker. Children have better immunities - let's drink less alcohol, avoid stress, take less drugs and stop smoking. Now is our wake up call. If in the meantime, we can be healthier, that could be a good thing.
I have read the spectrum of media reports and continue to monitor it all closely. There is alot of information out there, but we all need to be keeping ourselves informed, avoiding areas which might be contaminated and ensuring a robust health system. Be safe & well.
You may also be interested in
- World stats - infections and deaths around the world
- Potential 10,000 death toll
- Understand the coronavirus
- Coronavirus experience - British man in China
- Range of symptoms from a sample of hospitalised patients in Wuhan
- Infected With the Coronavirus. They Never Showed Signs.
- South Korea quarantine by Brits
- Advice to manage risk to coronavirus
- Coronavirus: What's the risk of flying or taking the train?
- Bus precautions
- London locations
- Coronavirus questions bbc including phone disinfecting
- What foods to eat
- Being prepared for self isolation
No comments:
Post a Comment